A marked decline in both wheat and soya prices in recent weeks has brought finished ration costs back to where they were in April.
Average UK prices for feed wheat (ex-farm) peaked at the end of May. They have since fallen back again, although they are still currently £5 a tonne higher than in April. Soya, too, has shown a sharp fall since the end of May, which now leaves it £20/t down on its April level.
See also: Ep 45 | ForFarmers’ Greg Marsh: Bfrepa’s Layer Academy and Feed Market Pressures
As a result, Poultry Network’s formulation cost for a basic layers’ ration at spot prices is down £6/t since May.
UK feed wheat now stands at £182/t. Having shown some strong trends over the last two months, it has been hovering above the £180/t mark for the first time since February 2025.
However, general sentiment on global wheat prices is now turning bearish. The latest WASDE report from the US indicates a good world wheat supply situation going forward, with better weather in the US and Europe improving harvest estimates.
Favourable harvests
The prospect of good wheat harvests across the northern hemisphere is driving prices lower, while in the last week the news of a peace deal in the Gulf has accelerated the process.
At the same time, the knock-on effect from a likely plentiful maize harvest is also becoming a factor. There are expectations of sizeable maize crops in South America, combined with hopes of good Spring crops in the US. However, things could soon swing the other way if persistent dry conditions set in once more.
The same WASDE report is also predicting a favourable outlook for end users of soya.
Good supply
The report has increased its prediction of world end-season stocks for 2026/27, indicating a good supply level over the coming year. Three key factors remain positive for lower prices.
Firstly, soya crops in the US Midwest have benefitted from better growing conditions in June, improving the longer-term supply outlook.
Secondly, in Argentina, the Rosario Exchange has recently raised its forecast for the country’s soya output by 3%. Meanwhile, the large Brazilian crop is keeping the global market well supplied.
