The current period of feed price stability looks set to continue for the egg and poultrymeat sectors.
Soya has continued its gentle downward trajectory for the sixth consecutive month, while feed wheat had edged up a few £s, leaving spot ration costs virtually unchanged.
See also: Sector marks recovery with shell egg output hitting new quarterly record
The US soya harvest is reaching its final stages, having progressed well during the dry conditions in October and so far running a little ahead of the same time last year.
The coming crop in South America is also on track, with estimates for next year’s Brazilian crop being revised upwards.
For now, any downward pressure on global soya prices from these harvests has been stabilised by a spike in US shipments to China.
US election
These are being partially fuelled by worries about the unknown political scenario that will emerge after the imminent election in the US.
UK feed wheat, meanwhile, has been creeping up since June, reaching £183/tonne during October.
However, the net increase over the five months has been just £6/tonne, and it is still slightly below this time last year.
Wheat prices
Looking at the pattern of UK feed wheat prices over the last five years, if you strip out the inflated wheat costs following the start of the conflict in Ukraine, UK wheat is currently shadowing not only last year’s second-half prices, but also the prices prevailing going back to before the crisis began.
No significant movement in world wheat prices is yet expected going forward. Russian exports are still playing a dominant role in setting world trade prices, with a small net rise in Russian export values taking place during the past month.
Next season’s Russian wheat crop in likely to be down on recent years, after plantings suffered a setback due to dry conditions in October.
Dry weather has also delayed the development of the wheat crop in the US; while in France it is wet weather which has been causing problems to wheat growers.
So far, this has not changed the market’s long-term view.
