THE New Year begins with a benign outlook for feed costs.

Although there are a few short-term worries for raw material prices, the generally stable background looks set to remain in the longer term.

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The average UK feed wheat price has moved up by around £6/tonne since before Christmas, and is currently a little more volatile than it is for soya.

As the winter in the northern hemisphere progresses, unfavourable weather across parts of the US, Europe, the Black Sea region and into Russia has been causing a little anxiety among traders, while the potential for reduced Russian exports is an extra worry.

However, as before, the competitive Black Sea wheat exports still regulate international prices.

Balanced

There is also a degree of downward pressure on prices from the harvest in the southern hemisphere.

In the long term, the general view is that supplies and demand are in good balance.

The latest US forecast for global wheat end-of-season stocks for 2024-25 have been raised during the past month by nearly a million tonnes.

A more uncertain element in the global cereals trade is maize, which can have a major influence on feed wheat costs.

Confidence

Confidence about the supply outlook has been slipping in recent weeks, and the trend forecast for the coming months is now showing an upward move for maize prices, with potential implications for wheat.

Soya, meanwhile, is showing little movement at all, and is expected to go on doing so. Good reports from the next major crop, from South America, are keeping traders relaxed.

The net effect on finished ration costs has been a small uptick of £4-5/tonne over the past few weeks, but no net change on where they were in the summer.