Europe’s poultrymeat sector is facing a complex outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026, according to the latest quarterly report from Rabobank.
Strong demand for affordable protein continues to buoy the market, but various factors are creating volatility and uncertainty, particularly for the UK and EU, says the report.
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Although the European market is experiencing robust prices, it is characterised by persistent supply constraints, and the re-emerging threat of avian influenza as winter approaches.
In fact, tight parent stock supply is limiting supply growth in a number of regions , including Europe, Africa, and Latin America, a situation not likely to improve significantly until early 2026, according to Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst with RaboResearch.
In contrast, globally, the poultry market is projected to maintain a strong trajectory, with a growth forecast of 2.8% for 2025, which is faster than the 2.6% growth seen in 2024.
Affordable protein
As poultry remains an affordable choice for consumers amid rising beef, egg, and pork prices, the industry is set to thrive, believes Mr Mulder.
“Lower feed prices are contributing to industry profitability, providing a boost to markets across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas,” he explains.
“Poultry continues to be a cost-effective option for consumers, especially as prices for other proteins rise.”
However, in Europe, production volumes are expected to see only a gradual recovery in Q4 2025 and early 2026, ensuring that markets remain finely balanced.
Production
The report indicates a significant slowdown in production growth; total poultry production in Europe declined by 0.8% in the first half of 2025, as turkey output fell 5.6% and ducks by 22.8%.
Meanwhile, chicken output increased by just 1%, compared with a robust 6.3% in the same period last year.
This deceleration is essentially a lingering consequence of avian influenza outbreaks that ravaged central Europe in the second quarter, leading to extensive culling of parent stock and a lasting impact on supply.
The UK, a significant export market for the EU, is mirroring many of these supply constraints.
Lower stocking densities
Its domestic poultry production fell by 0.6% in the first half of the year, partly due to the shift by retailers towards lower-density stocking.
The upcoming 2026 European Chicken Commitment deadline, one that many poultry customers have made, could further strain European supply, though postponements are already being considered due to the current market tightness.
The UK has also seen a 3% decline in imports from the EU, reflecting the bloc’s own tight supply and high prices.
Alternative countries
In a notable divergence, the UK managed to increase imports from countries like Ukraine, Thailand, and Brazil, as a consequence of the regional rather than nationwide ban on Brazilian poultry following its avian influenza outbreak in May.
Indeed, international trade dynamics have significantly impacted European markets.
The reintroduction of quotas has reduced Ukrainian imports by 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons per month, while Brazil’s avian flu-induced export halt between May and July temporarily cut European breast meat supply by 20,000 to 25,000 metric tons monthly.
Poland
This reduction in imports, combined with strong domestic demand, has propelled breast meat prices to record highs, with Polish prices serving as a bellwether for similar trends across Western Europe.
Total extra-EU trade declined by 3% in the first half, primarily due to reduced shipments to the UK and various Asian markets.
Looking ahead, the return of Brazilian exports to the global market, following its declaration of avian flu-free status, could exert downward pressure on prices, but the timing and scale of this impact in Europe is uncertain.
