GLOBAL poultry markets will continue to be influenced by avian influenza and inflation into 2023, according to the latest outlook from Rabobank.
The outlook for most poultrymeat markets around the world is positive, with strong demand and limited supply – but that is changing.
Shoppers will become more price driven as inflation erodes spending power, however this usually strengthens demand for cheap proteins such as chicken or eggs.
But feed and energy prices will continue to prove challenging.
Rabobank expects corn and soya prices to soften by 10%-15% by the end of 2023, but remain high in historic terms.
Wheat prices are likely to remain firm, however, given continued disruption in the vital Black Sea region.
It also expects feed pricing volatility to continue because of low stock levels, uncertain trade demand, geopolitical changes and potential supply disruptions.
Energy prices will also remain volatile into 2023, the bank adds.
Avian influenza will remain a critical influencing factor for global poultry markets – as it has been for the past two years.
Cases are hitting record highs both in Europe and the USA, and there is evidence that the virus is working its way through South America – a first.
“AI is now moving into South America, with cases recently reported in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
“In all regions, AI is affecting local supply, and in some markets, it also affecting trade.
“Currently, concerns are rising about the virus reaching Brazil’s key production areas in the South and Centre-West. If that happens, it would disrupt global trade, given the world’s dependence on Brazil.”
“In Europe supply remains very tight amid lower production and birds lost to avian influenza. Imports have increased significantly – by 39% from Brazil and 65% from Ukraine.
“Ongoing high feed costs and the risks of higher energy costs and more AI cases in the winter are expected to lead to limited growth while demand is expected to stay strong, especially as pork prices have risen. The biggest wild cards for the industry are consumer acceptance of current high prices and rising import volumes from Brazil and Ukraine.”
The full report is available from Rabobank.