BROILER expansion in the UK is forecast to lag behind the EU as a whole during this coming year, according to the latest global review from Rabobank.

UK output is likely to be especially restricted by the move to lower broiler stocking densities as it gathers pace in 2025, claims the report.

See also: Surge in broiler chick placings to end the year

“There are still quite some challenges and changes coming up,” said senior analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder at RaboResearch.

“The most obvious one is the current shift by most key retailers to the new 30kg/sq m UK standards, which will significantly impact farm capacity.”

“The transformation started last year. So far, production in the UK has remained relatively high, but with upcoming new commitments, it will likely impact this year.”

Growth

Rabobank expects production of chicken in the EU to grow by an average of 4-5%, compared with 2-3% in the UK.

In fact, Europe as a whole is predicted to outpace average global expansion, which is estimated at just 2.5%-3% overall.

However, it is the emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa which are expected to be the leaders in world growth during 2025.

Variation

Within Europe, there is considerable variation projected between member states.

Dutch output is forecast to contract by around 2%, while the industry in Germany is likely to grow by under 1%.

On the other hand, growth in Poland, Spain and Italy is estimated at 5%, plus Romania and Hungary with 7%-9% growth.

Stable raw material costs

Top performer in Europe is forecast to be the French broiler industry, with an increase of well over 10%.  

Profitability and confidence worldwide should also benefit from stable raw material costs, predicts Nan-Dirk Mulder.

Global price movements for maize, wheat, and soya should all be relatively minor throughout the coming year, although wheat supplies could pose the most significant worry.

Demand

He foresees a return to long-term global average market growth for chicken, driven by affordability, positive sustainability trends, and strong demand in emerging markets.

However, geopolitical tensions and trade issues will continue to challenge the industry, he warns: “Particularly issues related to policy changes by the new US government, rising tensions between Europe and China, ongoing rerouting of shipments via the southern route due to turmoil in the Middle East, and trade restrictions due to disease challenges.”