As predicted, spot ration costs have shown little movement during the past month and remain at historically high levels.
Wheat has gained a little, soya has eased a bit.
The net result for our Basic Layers’ Ration is a gain of £1/tonne on January, to £309/t.
For the first time on record, feed wheat has spent four consecutive months above £210/t. The global market is still dominated by tight stocks.
Added to this is the potential disruption to Black Sea exports if the current political situation worsens.
At the same time, a counterbalancing factor has been the arrival of some helpful rainfall for the US winter wheat crop.
For now, the outlook for wheat prices is steady until events tip them one way or the other.
And despite the current high prices, the market is still seen as having the potential to move higher.
The soya trade is awaiting developments in much the same way as wheat.
The main issue is the widespread concern about dry conditions in South America, with no rain expected soon.
Although these worries have yet to be confirmed by some physical harvest data, trade sentiment is leaning towards the possibility of higher prices ahead due to reduced yields.
SOYA – Harvest estimates for South America likely to be downgraded.
WHEAT – The market is watching developments around the Black Sea, and currently lacks direction.