SPOT ration costs have climbed to their highest level since late 2023, after another month of rising feed ingredient prices.
The result is an increase of £14 a tonne in our Basic Layers’ Ration, taking it back to levels last seen at the end of 2023.
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The upward pressures on global grain and oilseed prices have not eased in recent weeks, with international tensions still high and further downward revisions to grain harvests.
Tracking these trends, the UK average feed wheat price gained £18 /tonne overall over the past month, topping £200 and reaching its highest point since Spring 2023, at £210.
The attention of traders in recent weeks has turned to the US maize crop, where price movements can have a knock-on effect on feed wheat prices.
Lower yields
The latest forecast has predicted an even larger downturn this year than an earlier USDA forecast, with the US maize crop now estimated to be down as much as 10% on last year. Yields could be 7% lower. Weather conditions during coming weeks will be a key factor.
Meanwhile the International Grains Council (IGC) has further cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2026/27, and also reduced estimates of wheat exports from the Black Sea region. Earlier, signs of a potential negotiation between Ukraine and Russia had helped to put a brake on global price rises, although no further news has emerged.
The heatwaves in Europe this summer have also made a dent in the expected world wheat crop. The IGC is now forecasting a fall of almost 28 million tonnes in the world wheat harvest this year, to 817mt.
Soya
Global soya bean prices hit a new high at the start of this month, despite indications that the US crop has not suffered further damage from the weather. However, prices have been supported by good export sales, especially to China.
More significantly, the apparently deteriorating situation in the Gulf has raised oil prices again and dragged up soya prices alongside. A month ago, US soyabeans were $12.48 a bushel; this week they hit $13.14.
Accordingly, UK soyameal prices have gained £5/tonne since August and are now approaching the levels seen when the conflict first began in the Spring.
