Growth in global poultry consumption is poised to return to historic levels after several years of slow progress.

Demand should grow by 2.5% to 3% worldwide this year, driven by accelerating consumption growth in many markets, according to the latest global Poultry Quarterly report from the research unit at Rabobank.

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“Global poultry markets are performing well due to lower production costs and solid demand recovery in most markets,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst at RaboResearch.

However, the key issues confronting the trade remained a concern and were largely unchanged.

These included the need to maintain the market balance during expansion, the persistence of avian influenza, growing geopolitical tensions, and the cost of sustainability initiatives in numerous countries, along with the possible impact of El Nino on feed costs.

Rapid growth

“Poultry’s strong price position against other proteins is supporting rapid growth in most markets,” he said.

The report predicts that consumption in advanced economies like Europe, the US, and Japan should keep growing in line with long-term trends and better affordability.

Demand for more value-added products like processed chicken and concept poultry will recover further, returning to trend levels after a few slow years.

“For the outlook, the main wild cards will be animal diseases and geopolitical tensions. Both can suddenly impact global trade flows,” it notes.

Exceptions

While most poultry industries worldwide have remained relatively profitable, the notable exceptions were China and Japan, according to the report.

Fast production growth in these countries, in combination with more challenging local economic conditions and lower consumer confidence, has led to oversupply, with relatively low prices and rising stocks.

“This has also weighed on imports, with large year-on-year drops in raw chicken imports to China and Japan in the first half of 2024.”

Although global trade is forecast to grow in line with rising global poultry demand, the weakness in Chinese demand will pressure chicken feet prices in particular.

Processed poultry

Breast meat and processed chicken prices are expected to remain firm, reflecting the strong market conditions in the main importing markets in Europe and the rest of Asia.

“In a context with ongoing high risks, supply growth discipline is important to keep operating under balanced market conditions,” concludes Nan-Dirk Mulder.

“Otherwise, the current bullish market conditions could push producers to expand too optimistically, leading to oversupply like that seen in China and Japan.”